By 2030, the Irish government plans to build 300,000 homes.
In the 1980s, 250,000 homes were built.
In the 1990s, 400,000 homes were built.
In the 2000s, 600,000 homes were built.
In the 2010s, 100,000 homes were built.
In the last 4 years, 100,000 homes were built.
If the government instantly magiced 320,000 homes, we would meet today's demand. This includes an expected 5% turnover figure (i.e. for sale). Currently turnover is less than 1%
I'm under 40. 55,000 people sat the leaving cert exams when I did, 20 years ago. In 2024 that number was 61,000.
You'd need to make at least 80,000 new homes a year to keep up with today's demand - even after magically creating 320,000 homes. More in 10 - 15 years time.
In the 1980s, an Irish couple spent 17% of their income on a mortgage.
Today? 26%.
Back then, the average home cost 1.7x the average income.
Now? Over 7x.
Dual incomes used to be optional and got you a nicer home or on the ladder faster.
Now? Mandatory - even for a shit box.
Single income households? Essentially locked out (average age 39).
So no, your parents didn't have it harder. They had it handed to them - and pulled the ladder up.
In the 2024 Irish elections, the parties in power promised ~50,000 new homes a year. This falls drastically short of current and expected demand.
Boycotting holiday homes in Mayo is not a solution.
Exempting a garden shed with notions from planning is not a solution.
Google offering housing to public sector workers is not a solution.
Blaming others is not a solution.
We know what the solution is. For 10+ years they've said "It won't happen overnight".
Bullshit - it won't happen at all
In those 10 years, homelessness up 575%.
In 2024, 15,000 people were homeless. 9,000 are families.
Cost? €361,000,000.
€40,111/family/year. €3,343pm
50% are homeless for over 1 year. 20% for over 2 years.
Median home price, €355,000.
Cost? 30 years at 3.0% - €1,496pm
€3,343pm clears that mortgage in 10 years.
We are spending more to keep people on the streets than in homes, with walls made of misery instead of brick. Build homes instead of excuses.
ESRI: "No new homes 'til 2027, lads!"
Targets now:
2025: 34,000
2026: 37,000
2027: 44,000
2028: 43,000
2029: 43,000
Central Bank: "We need 54,000/year for 25 years just to stand still."
Reality check: 93,000/year won't fix the backlog in a decade.
Talks of 100% mortgages - they will only raise prices. We built 93,000 homes and had 100% mortgages back in 2006... Same year they made Priory Hall.
The Irish government will make the entire country a "Rent Pressure Zone", negating the commonly understood meaning of the word Zone... Becoming "Rent Pressure".
They say these plans are to incentivise institutional investors... There are already incentives, such as:
* No Corporation Tax or CGT
* 24 month rent control reset
* HAP & HTB increasing prices
* RTB exemption for "Co-Living Spaces"
Meanwhile, in the last year prices are up 12.3%. Up 40% in the last 5 years - 100k for a median home.
€600k is the current price of a 3 bed semi-detached house in Dublin.
John and Mary (34 yo) need a minimum €60k deposit and must have a combined income of €135k - or €68k each - to purchase this home. Their mortgage is €540k.
With a BER rating of C, the most common for second hand homes, their interest rate is 3.2%.
Each month, for the next 30 years, they will pay €2,335.
It will take them 101 months (~8 ½ years) to start paying more principal than interest. They will be 42 years old
Fiadh¹, their child born shortly after moving into the house, will have their First Holy Communion at this time.
The mortgage is made up of €1,167 interest and €1,169 principal.
She gets €10,000 for this life event from friends and family. John and Mary put it towards the mortgage.
The next month they pay €1,137 interest and €1,198 principal.
It has knocked 8 months off the term.
__
¹ Irish feminine name meaning wildness
Surely a larger deposit will save John, Mary, & Fiadh?
Let's try a 20% deposit - €120k thanks to the bank of Mom & Dad.
Mortgage of €480k at 3.2% = €2,076pm for 30 years.
Again they hit the "principal > interest" at 101 months. Fiadh's First Communion.
Surely her €10,000 Communion money will have more of an impact. They've done everything right!
9 months.
Fiadh's Communion money was enough for 9 months - not enough for a sibling.
John and Mary never explain. They did the maths years ago.
Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe proudly announced 200k homes built since 2016 on the radio today.
Recall the second line in this thread: "In the 1980s, 250,000 homes were built."
200k homes in 9 years. 22,222 a year.
If Fiadh was born in 2016, she'd have her First Communion now. A Dublin 3 bed semi was €334k back then.
Fiadh has a dress & a cake for her Communion. She doesn't have an address for her teacher or cousin.
"200k homes" beams Paschal Donohoe. The spreadsheet says we're winning
(Edited reply. Included here for continuity)
2025 Median John and Mary (combined income of €90k) need a €250k deposit for a €350k mortgage on a €600k Dublin 3 bed semi. €1,514pm
The deposit means Fiadh will never meet her grandfather. They told her it was quick. Peaceful. No suffering from the cancer eating away at him.
She will grow up in the house he never saw. A house not possible without him.
Her communion money would have bought him 12 months to live, if you could call it living.
A month after this post, people have realized (and are finally talking about the fact) that earning below €100,000 in Ireland means you cannot afford your own home.
Wait until they find out that we don't have the electric, gas, water, sewerage, or transport infrastructure either.
@devxvda They want to keep prices up on purpose. I don't ever see myself retiring from work as a result. I'm trying to accept I'll never truly have my own place, but that's a tough thing to accept, especially as I get older.
@kelpana Of course they want to keep prices up. This is evident in the recent election promises.
The parties promised 50,000 new homes a year. This is well below the 80,000 new homes a year needed AFTER magically creating the 320,000 required to meet today's demand.
@devxvda building more houses would also create good jobs and require more infrastructure such as roads and railways. It's all being manipulated and it makes me so angry. I couldn't live off the money I earn right now and pay full rent (I'm very lucky right now, but I'm under no illusion that could change). Some of my friends are doing the same job as me and getting paid 3-4x what I'm getting 
. They have less experience too.
@devxvda not sure you could entirely blame your parents’ generation
@devxvda little to disagree with here but "So no, your parents didn't have it harder. They had it handed to them - and pulled the ladder up." is not a viable analysis when many in the 80s paid 17pc interest rates and waited 10 years for a council house and then got offered to buy one for little money because Thatcherism.
My point being that they too were living in conditions not of their own making.
@devxvda @ownohmanny high inflation rates don’t matter so much if wage growth is also high, which it was. We had unions back then.
@BenAveling @ownohmanny There was also mortgage interest relief.
Both are taken into account in my figures as they are ratios
@devxvda tbh that couple who started paying a mortgage in 1980 should've paid it off and retired by now
@devxvda two words to make a gov tremble: viability gap
@devxvda what could go wrong? Says an American looking at homeless seniors curled up sleeping in doorways…
@devxvda Good thing they’re 34. If either were 44, they couldn’t even get that 30-year mortgage and would be paying that same amount every month on a €470k home. Ask me how I know :)
@aral At 44 with a 20 year term, same inputs, John and Mary will pay €3,050 per month. Fiadh is 10 when they draw down.
They are paying more principal than interest from the beginning.
Fiadh's €10k Confirmation money, 2 years into the mortgage, shaves 5 months off the term.
Fiadh asks why they didn't use the money to go on holiday like her friends. John quickly changes the subject.
@devxvda @aral things were bad when I got mine 8 years ago, since I was already over 40.
But it's only gotten harder.
I don't need young people to suffer to get a home (either affordable rent, or affordable buy) just because it was painful for me. I want them to have it easier. If that means I would "lose" money because my home depreciates, so be it, I didn't buy it as inversion.
Apparently I'm in a minority here.
@devxvda Not to mention John and Mary are on almost double the median household income in your example.
Median John and Mary (combined income of €90k) need a €250k deposit to meet affordability requirements for a €350k mortgage. €1,514pm
The deposit is the reason Fiadh will never met her grandfather. They told her it was quick. Peaceful. No suffering from the cancer eating away at him.
She will grow up in the house he never saw. A house not possible without him.
Her communion money would have bought him 12 months to live, if you could call it living.