On #tariffs:
"Retaliation by other countries will lead to a fall in US exports. In the 1930s, after the Smoot-Hawley tariffs were imposed, retaliation led to a 33% fall in US exports and spiralling down of international trade […].
"A tariff trade war would hit the US economy harder than Smoot-Hawley, since trade is now three times as big a share of GDP as it was in 1929, and was 75% of GDP in 2024 – versus roughly 6% in 1929."
