Christian Gebhard 📊<p>When you draw the lots in a Secret Santa round, what's the probability that no-one draws their own name?</p><p>Since Halloween is over and winter is approaching, I'd like to share a blog post from last year, that gives an answer:</p><p><a href="https://jollydata.blog/posts/2021-11-02-secret-santa/secret-santa.html" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"><span class="invisible">https://</span><span class="ellipsis">jollydata.blog/posts/2021-11-0</span><span class="invisible">2-secret-santa/secret-santa.html</span></a></p><p>If you want to guess before reading, feel free to leave an estimate as reply here before reading!</p><p><a href="https://vis.social/tags/secretsanta" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>secretsanta</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/secretsanta2022" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>secretsanta2022</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/Wichteln" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>Wichteln</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/presents" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>presents</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/estimates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>estimates</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/simulation" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>simulation</span></a> <a href="https://vis.social/tags/python" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#<span>python</span></a></p>