Back

We’re a few scant years into this flood tide of Other People’s Money now. In early years in was spent propping up the entire Covid-stopped economy.

A pretty clear “one-off” payment event.

Last year, 12bn was put away for a rainy day, which, you know, seems more likely to come in a jet-stream less future, so also fair enough.

But Jam Yesterday and Jam Tomorrow doesn’t tell us in what circumstances we might ever see Jam Today.

Ireland desperately needs capital expenditure for more, and different transport infrastructure, for example.

A recent holiday in the Netherlands brought home just how completely socially transformative real cycling infrastructure is.

There are plans for rail, farmers are going to have to be paid to let their land rewild and so on.

The Dept of Finance is a famously conservative body- so much so that it famously has trouble imagining economic success even in the face of multi-year booms.

In 2021 the Govt announced a rule (and then lightly breached it) that Govt expenditure should never expand by more than 5% in a year.

Here’s the Fiscal Advisory Council,
“The balance could ultimately be more favourable than forecast in Budget 2023, with revenue likely to outperform.”

And there’s a graph showing Ireland’s GNI (Gross National Income) too. You’ll notice it goes dramatically up at the end- 2021 being the last year recorded.
https://www.fiscalcouncil.ie/fiscal-assessment-report-november-2022/#:~:text=To%20support%20medium%2Dterm%20planning,simple%20and%20reasonably%20effective%20anchor.

Spoiler- the 2021 figure of GNI per capita went up, per the World Bank. From $76,110 in 2021 to $91,950 in 2022.

Insofar as the Govt has announced a long-term plan for all this gushings of income, it is to reduce the level of national debt.

Which again, is reasonable, but hardly an emergency.

As a good Keynesian, this all should be as I’d expect it. Save in good times, spend in bad, counter-cyclicals.

Except Keynes wasn’t looking at climate change. Putting off climate expenditure doesn’t just delay it to later. It may contribute to irreversible more expensive outcomes.

Penny wise, pound foolish, as is inscribed in stone at the Dept of Finance’s doorway.

@psn Seems so obvious I can’t imagine any reason not to do it.

@Tupp_ed I suspect that a lot of people, myself included, would raise an eyebrow at giving money to already well off landowners to do nothing. They would instead suggest that that farm payments be stopped and the savings be passed on to the taxpayer or spent on things that help the taxpayer (see, your thread). At least with sheep farming, the gov can claim it reduces the cost of food and is good for the local economy.

@psn I have some bad news about the Common Agricultural Policy.

@Tupp_ed (Another 7 years of the current government - which Varadkar seems to think is very feasible - would get to us to around 22,000 without permanent accommodation; an astonishing number for a country of this size and wealth, and a disaster in human terms)