Each #technological breakthrough brings us closer to realizing the goal of living on #Mars . Mars colonization is within our potential reach. This paper has outlined a feasible timeline
2020s: Continued #robotic exploration
2030s: Test missions for human life-support systems and #ISRU on the Martian surface
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10884476

#ISRU : 99 percent of the weight of the materials required to produce #SolarCells on the #Moon no longer need to be transported there. “These solar cells require ultrathin absorber layers of 500 to 800 nanometers only, allowing the fabrication of 400 square meter solar cells with just one kilogram of perovskite raw material brought from Earth” https://www.uni-potsdam.de/en/headlines-and-featured-stories/detail/2025-04-03-solarzellen-auf-mondglas-photovoltaik-koennte-die-energie-fuer-eine-zukuenftige-basis-au

The two instruments on the Lunar #Trailblazer spacecraft will work in tandem to generate high-resolution maps of the moon's #water. It should take between four and seven months to arrive in its final orbit https://phys.org/news/2025-02-lunar-trailblazer-blasts-moon.html

Early next month, #IM2 is targeting a touchdown at 84.6° south latitude, just 160 km from the #Moon’s south pole. It will deploy an #ice-mining drill and mass spectrometer, a miniaturized rover, and a unique “hopper” craft. Its first hop will reach a height of 20 m with two additional hops aiming to reach 50 m then 100 m. On its fourth and fifth hops, it will leap in and out of a permanently shadowed region inside a 20 m-deep #crater. https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/intuitive-machines-preps-im-2-mission-for-moon-launch-this-week

The proof of concept shows that at the current achievable flow rates of #CO2 and water, it is possible to meet #NASA’s 16-month deadline for refueling #rockets on #Mars . It can be scaled further to meet tighter rocket refueling deadlines. The use of Martian nighttime temperatures for heat exchange can potentially reduce the dependence on power-hungry cryogenic methods for gas liquefaction. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9118664

"As a rule of thumb, rockets launched from Earth must burn ~25 kg of propellant to transport one kg of payload, whereas rockets launched from the Moon would burn only ~4 kg of propellant to transport one kg of payload." https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/02/turning-the-moon-into-a-fuel-depot-will-take-a-lot-of-power

The parameters of the #NASA lunar initiative have yet to be defined precisely. What is the basic purpose ? How many round trips by crew per year ? How many cargo landings? Will the cargo delivery spacecraft be reusable ? Will descent and ascent vehicles be one and the same ? What are masses of ascent and descent vehicles ? How many landing sites will be used ? What activities are planned for the crew on the surface? What is the ROI of #ISPP ? https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/space.0188

#Lunar #ISPP (in situ #propellant production) : 3 billion metric tons of water ice are estimated at each pole*. Delivery from the #Moon could be done by #electromagnetic launcher (#EML)** for in-space refueling https://www.factoriesinspace.com/propellant-refilling

*https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576500000783
**https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576523001066

#ChangE8 2028 : “Through data sharing and task delegation, the #robots will work together like a team, achieving objectives that would be impossible for independent robots to complete” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3296324/change-8-moon-mission-first-get-robotic-boost-chinas-private-sector

#BlueOrigin : "we're going to try to make the expendable upper stage so #cheap to manufacture that a reusable stage can never compete with it. And we're going to try to make the #reusable stage so operable that an expendable stage can never compete with it."

Now is the time when the real movement, the kind of golden age of #space , is going to happen. The next big step is in situ resource development https://arstechnica.com/features/2025/01/after-the-success-of-new-glenn-blue-origin-to-focus-on-launching-frequently/

#SpaceAgencies and private companies are planning bases, scientific experiments and mining operations on the #moon . Whatever the #ArtemisAccords decide, Russia and China are not about to sign up.
A second effort at lunar governance is emerging at #Copuos*. Its new working group is mulling rules on the extraction of natural resources from celestial bodies https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/mar/25/bases-experiments-mining-the-race-to-protect-the-surface-of-the-moon

* https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/copuos/index.html

A 100kg #robot will prepare a working area on the lunar surface and transfer the parts from the lander and assemble them. All of #China’s planned #ChangE missions will be testing technologies to pave the way for Chinese #astronauts to land on the #moon before 2030 https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3251854/china-calls-developers-change-8-mission-make-and-assemble-moon-bricks

#Guardian 8 Dec 2023 The #Peregrine mission is the first in a fleet of private #spacecraft bound for the #moon in the next few years. Future landers aim to drill for ice and other materials, potentially iron and rare earths, which are of interest to mining firms. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/dec/08/nasa-hands-over-control-as-new-era-of-moon-missions-readies-for-lift-off

To safely bring the #ISS back to #Earth, a dedicated #spacecraft will have to be built, the total cost of which is estimated at $1 billion over the course of this decade.
A #SpacePolicy expert suggested the opposite idea: #raising the #ISS to a stable #orbit at the end of its useful life https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2023-11-20/25-years-of-the-international-space-station-what-next-for-a-beacon-of-peaceful-international-scientific-collaboration.html

"If #China gets there first, they will get to set precedent that’s based on their values and their economic system" . China has now landed #spacecraft on the #lunar surface successfully three times this century, while the #US has not landed there since #Apollo 17 https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/13/china-nasa-moon-landing-first