the meteorologists have called it.
the very weak La Nina that stuck around for a whole 3 months has dissipated
and we're back to ENSO neutral.
#wx #SeaSurfaceTemperatures #ENSO
https://apnews.com/article/la-nina-el-nino-climate-drought-9c357862ffdd8b0eb67e315c944a1707
this la nina (can we still call it that?) looks likeit's being attacked by hot water
cant get over this.
the El Nino that went from October 2014 to May 2016 was the strongest El Nino in recorded history. (except that record was smashed last year, i guess)
We are in a La Nina right now, when equatorial Pac temps are cooler. let's look at this year's sea surface temp for comparison... (2015 is dark grey, 2024 is orange, 2025 is red)
YIKES
ok... remember way back in 2023 when we had wall-to-wall coverage of the record breaking sea surface temperatures? then the coverage stopped.
but those sea surface temps never lowered.
some more conservative scientists said it was just a crazy El Nino
but others suggested climate change's pace was accelerating.
now, we are supposed to be in a La Nina. but those SST's? still just so, so high...
#ClimateChange #SeaSurfaceTemperatures
graph shows 2023 in dark grey, 2024 in yellow, 2025 in red
well, NOAA says a weak La Nina is here.
let's 'sea' what that looks like in 2025:
last year's insane weather was blamed by some on El Nino
now, they have been predicting a weak La Nina to emerge for a few months, and it just never crossed the threshhold (maybe it has by now tho)
yet, sea surface temperatures? they're not cooling much.
ok, so La Nina is still expected (really, guys?)
Nov 14 2024 update:
"La Niña is most likely to emerge in Oct.-Dec. 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025. ... the team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak & have shorter duration than other historical episodes..."
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
now for a look at the equatorial Pacific...
dunno.. time will tell, i guess
Fuel For Hurricane Milton [remotesensing, NASA]
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https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153429/fuel-for-hurricane-milton <-- shared technical article
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https://weather.ndc.nasa.gov/sport/ <-- shared link to NASA SPoRT page
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #HurricanMilton #hurricanemilton2024 #HurricaneWarning #hurricane #extremeweather #remotesensing #climatechange #ocean #oceantemperatures #temperatures #Florida #GulfOfMexico #seasurfacetemperatures #risk #hazard #storm #stormsurge #flooding #wind #SPoRT #VIIRS #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #weather #weatherforecasting #satellite #global #coast #coastal #nowCOAST #disaster #naturaldisaster #naturalhazard #prediction #mitigation #planning #management #cost #economy
@nasa
![map - These maps show sea surface temperatures on October 6, using data from the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project based at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. Surface waters above 82 degrees Fahrenheit (27.8 degrees Celsius)—the temperature generally required to sustain and intensify hurricanes—are dark red. This map... is [also] overlaid with brightness temperature data, acquired by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite in the early morning of October 7, to show the location of Milton’s storm clouds.](https://files.techhub.social/media_attachments/files/113/278/718/126/419/757/original/4ee80fa3fae01763.jpg "map - These maps show sea surface temperatures on October 6, using data from the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project based at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. Surface waters above 82 degrees Fahrenheit (27.8 degrees Celsius)—the temperature generally required to sustain and intensify hurricanes—are dark red. This map... is [also] overlaid with brightness temperature data, acquired by the VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) on the NOAA-21 satellite in the early morning of October 7, to show the location of Milton’s storm clouds.")
so, the Pacific is kinda sorta looking more like a La Nina is developing. finally. (Equatorial temps roughly south of Hawaii)
but sea surface temps are still very high in general.
or at least they were when we last got a look at them before the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data center, which is located in Asheville, North Carolina, was knocked offline by Hurricane Helene
what a world.
#SeaSurface temperature record in the southwestern #Pacific: Coral colony from Fiji reveals warmest temperatures in over 600 years // #SeaSurfaceTemperatures #ecology #corals #paleoclimatology #ClimateResearch #PacificOcean @ScienceAdvances @uni_mainz_eng
https://nachrichten.idw-online.de/2024/09/18/sea-surface-temperature-record-in-the-southwestern-pacific-coral-colony-reveals-warmest-temperatures-in-over-600-years
hmmm.. i was told we would enter a La Nina soon. the equatorial Pacific is still looking pretty warm tho.
and don't even ask me WTF is going on in the North Atlantic...
El Nino looks like it is calming down, but sea surface temps are still stubbornly high, and the atmosphere continues to put up anomalies around +1ºC compared to the 1982-2011 mean
after sustained record sea surface temperatures, Climate reanalyzer has again adjusted the scale of their Y axis on the SST graph to a maximum of 21.5ºC
(it was recently a max of 21.2ºC)
average SST is now at an all time record high - on March 9, 2024 = 21.2ºC
(this is also happening even as El Nino is getting weaker)
If you thought 2023 global sea surface temperatures were astounding, 2024 is setting a new level.
new record high global sea surface temperature just set at 21.17°C.
There will be massive coral bleaching! I 
for the Great Barrier Reef and marine ecosystems. 
well, climate reanalyzer / University of Maine finally had to do it - they had to adjust the Y-axis on sea surface temperature graph because it's getting so warm
Earth continues to put up impressive temperature anomalies on land and sea...
Just checking global daily #SeaSurfaceTemperatures …
Yep, still at record levels as at 31 Jan 2024
#OceanHeat is a climate factor driving intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
#ClimateDiary #marineHeatwave
Oh Dear... more rain for #Queensland with flash flooding and riverine #flooding likely. Western Queensland with ex-#TCKirrily and SE Queensland can expect isolated falls between 200-300mm.
One of the drivers for more intense rainfall is climate driven #oceanheat producing anomalous #SeaSurfaceTemperatures of 1-3C in the Coral Sea enhancing atmospheric water carrying capacity.
Latest (29 Jan) #BOM weather forecast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3q8Abg7NSxA
Greg Cocks 
