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#predictivemodel

1 post1 participant0 posts today
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💧🌏 Greg Cocks

Restoring Predators, Restoring Ecosystems: Yellowstone Wolves And Other Carnivores Drive Strong Trophic Cascade
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phys.org/news/2025-02-predator <-- shared technical article
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doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2025.e <-- shared paper
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#GIS #spatial #mapping #YellowstoneNationalPark #Largecarnivores #Willows #Crownvolume #Chronosequencephotographs #Trophiccascade #strength #ecosystem #ecology #biology #biodiversity #vegetation #wolf #elk #willows #riparian #stream #water #hydrology #tree #health #foresthealth #herbivore #carnivore #reintroduction #plants #spatialanalysis #spatiotemporal #biomass #foodweb #predictivemodel #model #modeling #response #predators #yellowstone

photo - wolf crossing a road
schematic - trophic cascade with wolves in Yellowstone National Park
charts - The Yellowstone trophic cascade in context. Wolves were introduced into Yellowstone in 1995 and 1996. Between 2001 and 2020, estimated average willow crown volume in northern Yellowstone rose from approximately 0.30 m3 to 4.80 m3 (A; error bars indicate 95 % confidence intervals). This change corresponds to a log10 response ratio of 1.21 (B), which is substantially greater than the response ratios observed in many other studies (C). Willow crown volume was calculated using height data from Cooper and Hobbs (2023) and the crown volume model from Kauffman and Cummings (2024). Except for Yellowstone willows, average log10 ratios by system type were obtained from a trophic cascade meta-analysis of plant biomass studies (Borer et al., 2005); sample sizes are shown in parentheses; error bars represent one standard error of the mean (C).
photos - (A) Downstream view of the East Fork of Blacktail Deer Creek in August 2004 and September 2021, northern range of Yellowstone National Park, USA. Note the 2.4 m tall fenced ungulate exclosure near the bottom right of the 2004 photo with willows alongside sagebrush, which was part of a Cooper and Hobbs (2023) experimental site. In 2002, willow heights outside the newly constructed fence averaged 68 cm whereas willows inside the fence averaged 85 cm in height (25 % taller). In 2020, willow heights outside the fence averaged 165 cm while willows fully protected from ungulate herbivory inside the fence were 195 cm in height (18 % taller). The fence was constructed in 2001 and removed by the spring of 2021. The similarity, in this example, between inside and outside the exclosure in 2021 is consistent with the strong trophic cascade quantified in the full time-series dataset. (B) Upstream view of Blacktail Deer Creek in 2005 and 2021 and (C) an across channel view in 2005 and 2021 of another reach farther downstream. These chronosequence photographs should be considered examples only, but they do indicate that tall willows, with greatly increased crown volumes, had become relatively common along the valley bottom and floodplains of Blacktail Creek.
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AnneTheWriter

@caal

When you are NOT "guessing" and are making actual predictions, based on a scientific formula, then that is not "chance."

When your scientific model can be retroactively applied (intact) for over 150 years into the past without error, then that is not "chance," it is SCIENCE.

Listen to the man speak, and do not judge him based on clickbait headlines.

Contrary to what the media tells you, he is NOT promising #Kamala will win. He is simply saying that "A lot would have to go wrong for the Democrats to lose at this point." There are still Keys which could be flipped.

He does say that there are factors still in play for this election (as he has said all along!), and explains them clearly. The polls have often been wrong. #ProfLichtmann never has.

#AllanLichtmann #13KeysToTheWhiteHouse
#13Keys #PredictiveModel #2024Elections

youtube.com/live/IuS98AcKDZQ?s

YouTube13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE (JULY 2024 UPDATE) | Lichtman Live #61By Allan Lichtman
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