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#Blackswan

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Did Trump’s tariffs cause a Black Swan event!

Black Swan events are characterized by unpredictability (rare, unforeseen); massive impact (significant disruption or transformation in a market); and in retrospect is often predictable.

- His massive tariff move was not predictable.
- This action has had a massive impact
- And in retrospect, was predictable!

#blackswan #tariffs #stockmarket #recession
secondopinion.media/p/a-look-a

A quotation from Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I don’t particularly care about the usual. If you want to get an idea of a friend’s temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. Can you assess the danger a criminal poses by examining only what he does on an ordinary day? Can we understand health without considering wild diseases and epidemics? Indeed the normal is often irrelevant.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (b. 1960) Lebanese-American essayist, statistician, risk analyst, aphorist
The Black Swan, Introduction (2007)

Sourcing, notes: wist.info/taleb-nassim-nichola…