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#PolyMarket

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Public
immibis
The fact that I joined UMA's Discord server (the blockchain oracle which decides whether events happened), and asked about a particular resolution which seems inaccurate, and was immediately banned from the server should tell you everything you need to know about #UMA / #Polymarket


Discord is their only supported discussion medium, so it's not like I was in the wrong place.
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stolenprivacy

Hab die Wetten auf #Polymarket für die #btw Wahlergebnisse gesichtet.

- Merz wird Kanzler, in Koalition mit #SPD
- #DieLinke kommt über 5% , die #FDP nicht
- Die #Grünen bleiben unter 15%

Warum relevant? Die Polymarket Wetter tippten präziser auf den Sieg des Orangenen als die anerkannten Prognose-Nerds bei der Präsidentenwahl es vorhersagten.

Jedoch: In den letzten Tagen schwankten die Wettquoten von FDP und Linke auf mehr als 5% Ergebnisse deutlich. Am Samstag schau ich wieder.
#depol #wetten

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Miguel Afonso Caetano

"The meteoric rise of the crypto betting platform Polymarket, the billions of dollars placed in bets on the outcome of the United States presidential election, and rumors of market manipulation and other malfeasance seem to have culminated in various investigations against the platform.

One, from France’s gambling regulator, seeks to “examin[e] [Polymarket’s] operation and compliance with French gambling legislation”. French law requires gambling platforms to register with and submit to oversight from the country’s gambling authority, as well as pay rather hefty taxes. Polymarket has not done any of these things, and so is likely to be shut down in the country. Although France’s gambling regulator has reportedly been eyeing the platform for a while now, the headline-making bets on a Donald Trump win from a trader who claims to be French [I69] may have hastened things along.

Over in the US, the FBI raided the apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan on November 13. Although Polymarket is based in the United States, it is not meant to be available to US-based bettors following a 2022 wind-down order (and fine) from the CFTC [W3IGG]. However, Polymarket — like many crypto platforms — does the bare minimum to pretend they’re putting in effort to prevent prohibited users from using the platform. If a person tries to place bets while connected from an IP address that geolocates to the United States, the site prevents them from doing so. However, IP-based location spoofing is an incredibly easy task, and many Americans have been using this technique to gain access to betting on the site."

citationneeded.news/issue-70/

Citation Needed · Issue 70 – The Cryptocurrency States of AmericaCrypto’s efforts to buy the 2024 elections paid off, and we’re in for a bumpy ride.
#Crypto#Cryptocurrencies#Cryptobetting
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⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

🚨👀🚨
FBI seizes Polymarket CEO’s Phone and Electronics

Polymarket was the source of all the breathless coverage of election prediction markets that dominated a large section of election coverage.

the #NewYorkPost editorializes the story grotesquely with with "after it predicts #Trump's win".... article is so deeply spun into pretending this is a plot against trump that i'm hesitant to even link to it but here it is. only quotes Polymarket sources.

my hunch is that there were tons of americans illegally betting on the election.

nypost.com/2024/11/13/business

#Polymarket#Election2024#2024Election
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Shig [currently clean on OPSEC]
This time around, people finally seem to realize how broken polling is. But they still want to be able to predict the election’s outcome, so they’ve started citing the odds on betting sites like Polymarket.

Polymarket does not have special access to some secret stash of super-accurate polling data. It operates on a futures market model: the odds they set are based on the relative volume in each predicted outcome. If more people bet more money that Trump will win, Polymarket shows better odds of a Trump victory. That’s it.

Because if scientific polling can’t give you reliable results—or, more importantly, the results you want to see—then what could be more American than trusting the wisdom of markets?

#uselection #polymarket #polling
misanthropolis.xyzMisanthropolis
#polling
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